Those who are passionate about spaceflight and deep space exploration – including the possibility of personally participating – should keep in mind that nothing related to NASA is relevant to those interests. I once thought NASA's thinking, about how they would use their money, was really important: then I realized that NASA has no money! NASA only has orders from Congress with the promise that money will be sent as those orders are obeyed. (There can and has been some fudging involving not quite doing what they are being paid to do, but that is all in the accounting “noise” .) What we see is the “NASA-Congressional Complex” at work. Congress-critters are not interested in your passions – they are interested in theirs. This NASA+Complex has done some really neat stuff, and will continue to do so. Options are being hashed out – once again – which could change that picture modestly. But the “NASA Congressional Complex” is firmly committed to low risk activities which will create a lot of Jobs along with good publicity. Affordable exploration in space doesn't fit into that picture!
NASA's public domain information does, however, show us how to do what we want to do. Their “Paths not Taken”, including low cost space hardware options, also underscore and affirm the “Affordable Expedition” plans I continue to discuss. The fantasy of “What we could do...”, combining NASA+Complex money with our ideas and priorities, will forever remain a fantasy! We will get into space, but look more like “Linus Rawlings” (mountain man in “How the West Was Won”), or – eventually – a wagon train on the Oregon Trail, than any of the technology in “Avatar”!
Since you can't walk to the Moon, the result will look more like the early days of aviation than the Old West. Early aviation depended on Advertising/Publicity (associated with Air shows and Races), Communications (associated with the Air Mail contracts), Science/Technology (associated with aerial reconnaissance for both civil and military use) and Adventure (epitomized by Barnstormer Rides). There was a great deal of synergism between these components. Details change with time (particularly when a whole century goes by), but basics don't change much.
The picture for entrepreneurial spaceflight will closely resemble the one outlined for aviation history, and have the same four components. The “Adventure” component is the focus for “Virgin Galactic”, although (with typical synergism) the potential for these flights to increase productivity in space related Science/Technology is being recognized. Advertising/Publicity was the key in both of the Lunar Lander competitions. But Synergism will kick in big time when the fourth components starts feeding $$ Cash $$ into this community. And that will come with ComSat maintenance and repair!
More than $5 Billion is “sent into space” each year with high value Communications Satellites and similar equipment. Assets totaling some $100 Billion are working in space to serve humans on Earth. The ability to repair and maintain failed and dying satellites will, in some cases, bring immediate returns. But more important is the “virtuous spiral” which will result from the Possibility of repair! If things can be fixed, a risky new technology – which promises to quadruple ComSat capability – becomes a viable corporate option. Significantly better cost/performance ratios always open up new markets, and that boosts production rates to bring down costs further. Synergism again. If a compact Astronaut/Technician can reach an ailing ComSat, and fix it with only $16 Million costs (something marginally possible today), someone is going to make a hansom profit!
This is not a one shot proposition. Once demonstrated as a possibility, funding and capabilities will grow steadily. But it is far more economical to access GEO ComSats from the Moon than from Earth. So if the traveler can keep His/Her Wife/Husband happy at Moon Base One, that will support the existence of this outpost.
The existence of profitable “GEO On Site Service” will of course fuel vastly greater ambitions for space Adventure, Advertising/Publicity and Science/Technology, and hammer the costs for Deep Space activities down in every category.
It is not too early to begin assembling the equipment required to get a compact Astronaut/Technician from LEO (delivered by a Falcon 1) to GEO and back. Since this idea is no mystery, it may already be too late, for a startup with no preliminary experience, to capture this market!
Bookmark/Search this post with: