Results from the Japanese lunar orbiter that no ice lakes exist at the lunar poles were what most experts expected it to find. The readings of elevated hydrogen (indicating H2O) at the poles from the US Lunar Prospector satellite in 1998 were at levels that suggested an ice-to-dirt concentration of perhaps 1% with the ice crystals "gardened" into the soil by billions of years of micrometerorite impacts.

The international fleet of satellites now gathering at the Moon have a host of sensors to investigate the ice potential, and over the next year a much clearer picture will emerge.

Surface rovers, such as those Astrobotic will operate, will be able to directly confirm the presence of water (and/or other volatiles delivered by cometary impacts) as well as whether there are local concentrations of volatiles that would be more rewarding to recover. Water split into hydrogen and oxygen for rocket propellant would vastly improve the economics of lunar exploration and settlement -- returning spacecraft could refuel on the Moon rather than carry all their fuel with them from Earth.